CHICAGO – November 10, 2009 – The Crop Production report issued today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) overestimated the U.S. corn and soybean crops, according to an assessment by Lanworth, the agricultural intelligence company.

 

In its report, USDA lowered corn production by 1% while raising soybean production by 2%.

 

“While the corn estimate is a move in the right direction, both estimates are still too high,” said Dr. Nick Kouchoukos, Lanworth’s Vice President of Products. “This year’s weather has been deceptive. Cool and wet conditions promoted lush crop growth early in the season, but these same conditions delayed development, giving crops less time and fewer resources than usual to fill their seeds.”

 

Lanworth, a firm that uses computer simulations, satellite imagery, and producer surveys to forecast crop production, believes that USDA’s estimates do not account fully for early autumn freezes, which prematurely ended seed filling in many areas. Since then, unusually high rainfall has delayed harvest and raised concern about further yield loss.

 

“Delayed maturity and harvest mean that USDA knows less about this crop than usual for this time of year,” points out Kouchoukos. “Incomplete seed fill is manifest as low test weight, which must be measured directly in mature or harvested grain.”

 

Only 25% of corn and 51% of soybeans had been harvested when USDA conducted its most recent surveys. Since early maturing crops are less affected by freeze and harvest complications, Lanworth believes yields observed so far are biased high.

 

Lanworth expects USDA to adjust its corn and soybean production estimates downward in January as it incorporates more data from its yield surveys.

 

ABOUT LANWORTH

 

Lanworth is a natural resource intelligence firm providing timely, accurate, and independent estimates of agro-forest production to the global commodities markets. Combining daily satellite image feeds, advanced crop modeling, and extensive field observations, Lanworth's information products support sound investment, risk management, and supply chain planning.

 

 

Contact:

Dan Callahan

(314) 583-5050

 

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